Luanda – Angolan President João Lourenço is due to meet this weekend with his counterparts from Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in Kigali and Kinshasa, respectively.

The effort is part of another mediation marathon in the political-military crisis between the two neighbouring countries.

The initiative follows the growing, in recent days, of tension on the border between Rwanda and the DRC, marked by the capture of two more cities in eastern Congo by the M23 rebellion.

Kinshasa authorities have been accusing Rwanda of supporting M23 Movement.

After heavy clashes with the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC), at the end of October, the M23 rebels took control of the strategic localities of Kiwanja and Rutshuru, close to the common border, in the province of North Kivu.

The seizure of these localities doubled the territory they had previously occupied.

Kinshasa reacted with the expulsion of the Rwandan ambassador, Vincent Karega, giving him 48 hours to leave the country, in a sudden escalation of tension that once again put the two neighbouring countries on a war footing.

In Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, several thousand young Congolese took to the streets to express their fury against Rwanda for their alleged support for the M23, and declared their readiness to join the FARDC in the fight against what they call the “Rwandan invaders and aggressors”.

In his last statement on these events, the Angolan head of state characterised the situation as “very worrying” and once again insisted on the urgent need to return to dialogue, as the only solution to reverse the situation, after diagnosing “what is really happening”.

While acknowledging that there is currently no environment for the two parties to dialogue, at the level of heads of state, João Lourenço persisted that “the door to dialogue must always be open at all levels”, from the intelligence and military services, diplomacy and the heads of state themselves.

“The situation is indeed quite worrying (…) but the parties must dialogue”,  the Angolan statesman told Wednesday, 2, a videoconference of the Bureau of the Assembly of the African Union (AU).

João lourenço was speaking in his capacity as president of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR).

Preliminary steps

The Angolan head of state's trip for direct contacts with his counterparts, in Kigali and Kinshasa, was preceded by several other diplomatic actions, aimed at easing the tension in this conflict, which “places two brother countries on two opposing sides”.

In addition to telephone conversations on the issue, João Lourenço sent special delegations to Kigali and Kinshasa, headed by the Angolan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Téte António, between 30 and 31 October this year to convey his position in defence of a return to dialogue to a peaceful solution to the conflict.

These actions led to the coming to Luanda of ministerial or department delegations from Rwanda and the DRC, headed by the respective heads of diplomacy to meet with Angolan counterparts, on the preparation of conditions for the restoration of confidence between the parties, with a view to the resumption of implementation of the Roadmap for Peace agreed this year, in the Angolan capital.

During their visit to Luanda, the ministers of Foreign Affairs of Rwanda and DRC, respectively, Vicent Biruta and Christophe Lutundula, were also received in audience by the Angolan head of state.

At the time, the latter received encouragement from the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, who expressed, in a telephone contact, his full support for the mediation efforts of João Lourenço, who also has the mandate of the African Union (AU), as its “Champion for Peace and Reconciliation” since May 2022.

Luanda Peace Roadmap

According to observers, the main challenge at the moment is to convince the disaffected parties to return to the letter and spirit of the Luanda Peace Roadmap, which concludes the agreements reached at the last summit in the Angolan capital, on 6 July this year, also on the initiative of João Lourenço.

This conference resulted in an unexpected announcement of an “immediate ceasefire” in the new conflict, which, since the end of 2021, has shaken the province of North Kivu, in eastern Congo, by the action of the March 23 Movement (M23).

Rwanda and the DRC accuse each other of supporting the military insurrection to destabilize each other, with Kinshasa denouncing Kigali's accommodation and military aid to the M23, allegations that Kagame categorically denies.

In his defence, the latter justifies the resurgence of violence in Congolese territory due to the “indifference” of the Kinshasa Government to address the concerns of the Rwandophone population in the country, including members of the M23, whose rights are allegedly ignored.

As did DRC, Kigali also denounces an alleged alliance between Congolese government forces and Rwandan rebel groups to destabilize Rwanda.

In other words, Rwanda denies any and all support for the M23, but accuses, on the other hand, the FARDC of fighting, side by side, with the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Rwandan rebel group, created by former mentors of the 1994 genocide.

The Luanda meeting culminated in the adoption of a Roadmap, which recommends the reactivation of the Joint Commission of the two countries, after a prolonged stoppage.

The dismantling of the “negative forces”, including the M23 and the FDLR, which would be at the origin of the tension between the two sides, is also part of the decisions taken.

Luanda Roadmap also proposes a close fight against the anti-Rwandan hate speech in the DRC, which has taken on alarming contours since the rhetoric of Rwanda's support for the Congolese rebellion was resumed.

But the M23 conditioned, at the time, the acceptance of the ceasefire agreed, in Luanda, to the satisfaction of its demands, including the integration of its men into Congolese Armed Forces.

Previous understanding

Several agreements reached in the last 10 years with international mediation, including Angolan, were not enough to prevent the resurgence of the crisis in the common border.

Today, the number of armed groups operating in the DRC is estimated at several dozen, including the M23, which emerged from an old armed rebellion formed by individuals essentially of Rwandan Tutsi origin.

The origins of the M23 are former members of the FARDC, who allegedly defected to defend their ethnic group, which was allegedly being “massacred” by the government army.

After taking refuge in Rwanda, under the command of Laurent Nkundabatware, the same group later returned to the country, this time led by General Bosco Ntanganda, to reintegrate the FARDC on 23 March 2009.

Three years later, the group reappears as an anti-government movement, adopting its current name (M23), at a time when General Bosco Ntanganda was wanted by international justice for war crimes.

With the alleged support of Rwanda and Uganda, the M23 goes to war against the FARDC, until 2013, when it was defeated by a joint force of the UN and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR).

The defeat imposed by the international force of about three thousand soldiers forced the M23 to take refuge in Uganda.

Since then, several rounds of negotiations have taken place to reintegrate the group into the FARDC, without success, until the group reappears, in late 2021, in the east of the country.